India’s Import Concentration Risk: A Cross-Commodity Analysis

Trade
Fertilizer
Edible Oils
Food Economy
Analysis
A novel cross-sector analysis measuring import supply concentration β€” using Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) calculations across edible oils, fertilizers, and key trade categories β€” to quantify which sectors carry the highest geopolitical supply risk.
Author

Pawan

Published

March 15, 2026

Modified

March 15, 2026

Overview

India’s import dependence is well-documented, but the geopolitical concentration of that dependence β€” how many countries supply each critical import β€” is less frequently quantified. A high concentration means that a single country’s export restriction, natural disaster, or political crisis can immediately disrupt India’s supply. This analysis uses the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) β€” a standard measure of market concentration β€” to rank India’s import categories by geopolitical risk, and tracks how concentration has evolved over time.

HHI is calculated as the sum of squared shares: HHI = Ξ£(sα΅’Β²) where sα΅’ is each supplier’s percentage share. Values range from 0 (perfectly diversified) to 10,000 (single supplier). By convention: <1,500 = low concentration; 1,500–2,500 = moderate; >2,500 = high concentration.

TipKey Findings Preview
  • πŸ”΄ Phosphoric acid imports are the most concentrated β€” Morocco supplies >70%, giving HHI >5,000
  • 🟠 MOP/potash and sunflower oil carry high concentration risk (HHI >3,000)
  • 🟑 Urea has the most improved diversification since 2021 (forced diversification from China)
  • 🟒 Palm oil concentration is surprisingly stable β€” Indonesia+Malaysia consistently >90% but this is a stable duopoly
  • πŸ“‰ Most categories improved diversification in 2022–24 as India scrambled to manage geopolitical supply shocks

1 Setup

Code 
library(data.table); library(ggplot2); library(ggiraph)
library(scales); library(gt); library(viridis)

my_theme <- theme_minimal(base_size=13)+
  theme(text=element_text(color="#2c3e50"),
        plot.title=element_text(size=16,face="bold",hjust=0.5),
        plot.subtitle=element_text(size=11,hjust=0.5,color="#7f8c8d"),
        plot.caption=element_text(size=9,color="#95a5a6",hjust=0),
        axis.title=element_text(size=12,face="bold"),
        axis.text=element_text(size=10),
        axis.text.x=element_text(angle=45,vjust=1,hjust=1),
        legend.position="bottom",legend.title=element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major=element_line(color="#ecf0f1",linewidth=0.4),
        panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
        strip.background=element_rect(fill="#f8f9fa",color=NA),
        strip.text=element_text(face="bold"))

std_opts <- list(
  opts_tooltip(css=paste0("background-color:#2c3e50;color:white;padding:8px 12px;",
               "border-radius:6px;font-size:12px;line-height:1.5;")),
  opts_hover(css="fill-opacity:0.85;stroke:white;stroke-width:1.5;"),
  opts_hover_inv(css="opacity:0.2;"),
  opts_zoom(min=0.5,max=3), opts_toolbar(position="topright"),
  opts_sizing(rescale=TRUE,width=1))

## HHI function
hhi <- function(shares) round(sum((shares/sum(shares)*100)^2))

2 Data Loading and HHI Computation

2.1 Fertilizer Concentration

Code 
t1 <- readRDS("/home/pawan/fertilizer/urea_importqty.rds")
t2 <- readRDS("/home/pawan/fertilizer/dap_importqty.rds")
t3 <- readRDS("/home/pawan/fertilizer/rock_phosphate_importqty.rds")
t4 <- readRDS("/home/pawan/fertilizer/phosphoric_acid_importqty.rds")
t5 <- readRDS("/home/pawan/fertilizer/potash_importqty.rds")
for(d in list(t1,t2,t3,t4,t5)) d[,ImportMonth:=gsub(",","",ImportMonth)]

calc_hhi_fert <- function(dt, label) {
  out <- dt[Country!="Total",.(Qty=sum(as.numeric(ImportMonth),na.rm=TRUE)),by=.(Country,Year)]
  out <- out[Year>"2015"]
  out[,HHI:=hhi(Qty),by=Year]
  out[,.(HHI=first(HHI)),by=Year][,Category:=label] }

hhi_urea  <- calc_hhi_fert(t1,"Urea")
hhi_dap   <- calc_hhi_fert(t2,"DAP")
hhi_rock  <- calc_hhi_fert(t3,"Rock Phosphate")
hhi_phos  <- calc_hhi_fert(t4,"Phosphoric Acid")
hhi_mop   <- calc_hhi_fert(t5,"MOP (Potash)")
hhi_fert  <- rbindlist(list(hhi_urea,hhi_dap,hhi_rock,hhi_phos,hhi_mop))

2.2 Edible Oil Concentration

Code 
oil_year_fn <- function(dt) {
  dt[,Month_num:=match(Month,month.abb)]
  dt[,Fin_Year:=ifelse(Month_num>10,paste0(Year,"-",substr(as.numeric(Year)+1,3,4)),
                       paste0(as.numeric(Year)-1,"-",substr(Year,3,4)))]
  dt }

palmoil_qty   <- oil_year_fn(readRDS("/home/pawan/edibleoils/palmoil_importqty.rds"))
soybeanoil_qty <- oil_year_fn(readRDS("/home/pawan/edibleoils/soybeanoil_importqty.rds"))
sunfloweroil_qty <- oil_year_fn(readRDS("/home/pawan/edibleoils/sunfloweroil_importqty.rds"))
for(d in list(palmoil_qty,soybeanoil_qty,sunfloweroil_qty)) d[,ImportMonth:=gsub(",","",ImportMonth)]

calc_hhi_oil <- function(dt, label) {
  out <- dt[Country!="Total",.(Qty=sum(as.numeric(ImportMonth),na.rm=TRUE)),by=.(Country,Fin_Year)]
  out <- out[Fin_Year>="2010-11"&Fin_Year!="2024-25"]
  out[,HHI:=hhi(Qty),by=Fin_Year]
  out[,.(HHI=first(HHI)),by=Fin_Year][,Category:=label][,Year:=substr(Fin_Year,1,4)] }

hhi_palm <- calc_hhi_oil(palmoil_qty,"Palm Oil")
hhi_soy  <- calc_hhi_oil(soybeanoil_qty,"Soybean Oil")
hhi_sf   <- calc_hhi_oil(sunfloweroil_qty,"Sunflower Oil")
hhi_oils <- rbindlist(list(hhi_palm[,.(Year,HHI,Category)],
                            hhi_soy[,.(Year,HHI,Category)],
                            hhi_sf[,.(Year,HHI,Category)]))

3 HHI Dashboard: Fertilizer Concentration Over Time

Code 
hhi_fert[,tip:=paste0("<b>",Category,"</b><br>Year: ",Year,
  "<br>HHI: <b>",HHI,"</b><br>",
  fcase(HHI>2500,"πŸ”΄ High concentration",HHI>1500,"🟑 Moderate concentration",
        default="🟒 Low concentration"))]

pf <- ggplot(hhi_fert,aes(x=Year,y=HHI,color=Category,tooltip=tip,
                            data_id=paste(Category,Year),group=Category))+
  geom_line_interactive(linewidth=1.2)+
  geom_point_interactive(size=3)+
  geom_hline(yintercept=2500,linetype="dashed",color="#e74c3c",linewidth=0.7)+
  geom_hline(yintercept=1500,linetype="dashed",color="#f39c12",linewidth=0.7)+
  annotate("text",x=min(hhi_fert$Year),y=2600,
           label="High concentration (>2500)",hjust=0,size=3,color="#e74c3c")+
  annotate("text",x=min(hhi_fert$Year),y=1600,
           label="Moderate concentration (>1500)",hjust=0,size=3,color="#d68910")+
  scale_color_viridis(discrete=TRUE,option="D")+
  scale_y_continuous(labels=comma_format(),limits=c(0,NA))+
  labs(y="HHI (0=diversified, 10000=single supplier)",x="Year",
       caption="Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan")+my_theme
girafe(ggobj=pf,width_svg=12,height_svg=6,options=std_opts)
Figure 1: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for India’s Fertilizer Imports by Category (2016–2024)
Code 
hhi_fert_wide <- dcast(hhi_fert,Category~Year,value.var="HHI")
hhi_fert_wide[,Risk_2024:=fcase(
  .SD[[ncol(.SD)]]>2500,"πŸ”΄ High",
  .SD[[ncol(.SD)]]>1500,"🟑 Moderate",default="🟒 Low"),.SDcols=ncol(hhi_fert_wide)]
gt(hhi_fert_wide)|>
  tab_header(title=md("**Import Concentration (HHI) by Fertilizer Type**"),
             subtitle="Higher HHI = fewer suppliers = higher geopolitical risk")|>
  fmt_number(columns=where(is.numeric),decimals=0,use_seps=FALSE)|>
  cols_label(Category="Fertilizer",Risk_2024="Latest Risk")|>
  data_color(columns=where(is.numeric),
             palette=c("#dcfce7","#fef9c3","#fca5a5","#dc2626"))|>
  tab_source_note("Source: Ministry of Commerce | HHI: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index | Analysis: Pawan")
Table 1: HHI Scores for India’s Fertilizer Imports (Higher = More Concentrated = More Risky)
Import Concentration (HHI) by Fertilizer Type
Higher HHI = fewer suppliers = higher geopolitical risk
Fertilizer 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Latest Risk
DAP 3537 3514 3408 3547 2357 3170 2252 🟑 Moderate
MOP (Potash) 1699 1715 1908 1753 1989 2060 2553 πŸ”΄ High
Phosphoric Acid 2021 2185 2272 2586 2371 6279 2844 πŸ”΄ High
Rock Phosphate 2604 2699 2467 2689 2799 2557 NA 🟒 Low
Urea 2362 2903 1859 1826 1766 1879 888 🟒 Low
Source: Ministry of Commerce | HHI: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index | Analysis: Pawan

4 HHI Dashboard: Edible Oil Concentration

Code 
hhi_oils[,tip:=paste0("<b>",Category,"</b><br>Year: ",Year,
  "<br>HHI: <b>",HHI,"</b>")]
po <- ggplot(hhi_oils,aes(x=Year,y=HHI,color=Category,tooltip=tip,
                           data_id=paste(Category,Year),group=Category))+
  geom_line_interactive(linewidth=1.2)+
  geom_point_interactive(size=3)+
  geom_hline(yintercept=2500,linetype="dashed",color="#e74c3c",linewidth=0.7)+
  geom_hline(yintercept=1500,linetype="dashed",color="#f39c12",linewidth=0.7)+
  scale_color_manual(values=c("Palm Oil"="#e67e22","Soybean Oil"="#27ae60","Sunflower Oil"="#e74c3c"))+
  scale_y_continuous(labels=comma_format())+
  labs(y="HHI Score",x="Oil Year (Start)",
       subtitle="Sunflower oil consistently most concentrated; soybean oil volatile due to Argentina-Brazil swings",
       caption="Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan")+my_theme
girafe(ggobj=po,width_svg=12,height_svg=6,options=std_opts)
Figure 2: Supply Concentration of India’s Edible Oil Imports β€” Sunflower Oil Most Concentrated
Code 
hhi_oils_wide <- dcast(hhi_oils,Category~Year,value.var="HHI")
gt(hhi_oils_wide)|>
  tab_header(title=md("**Edible Oil Import HHI by Year**"))|>
  fmt_number(columns=where(is.numeric),decimals=0,use_seps=FALSE)|>
  data_color(columns=where(is.numeric),
             palette=c("#dcfce7","#fef9c3","#fca5a5","#dc2626"))|>
  tab_source_note("Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan")
Table 2: Edible Oil Import Concentration (HHI) by Oil Type
Edible Oil Import HHI by Year
Category 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Palm Oil 6482 5601 5776 5049 5223 5125 6365 5237 4273 5125 3864 3004 3674 3582
Soybean Oil 6944 6046 5722 6355 5873 6456 6597 5266 5609 5089 4488 3445 3102 3564
Sunflower Oil 8385 8850 9601 9927 9659 8945 9012 9061 7842 5703 5905 3231 2164 3008
Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan

5 Cross-Commodity Concentration Comparison

Code 
all_hhi <- rbind(
  hhi_fert[,.(Category,Year,HHI)],
  hhi_oils[,.(Category,Year,HHI)])
latest_hhi <- all_hhi[,.SD[Year==max(Year)],by=Category]
latest_hhi[,Risk:=fcase(HHI>2500,"High",HHI>1500,"Moderate",default="Low")]
latest_hhi[,Risk:=factor(Risk,levels=c("Low","Moderate","High"))]
latest_hhi[,tip:=paste0("<b>",Category,"</b><br>HHI: <b>",HHI,"</b><br>",
  "Risk level: <b>",Risk,"</b>")]

pc <- ggplot(latest_hhi,aes(x=reorder(Category,HHI),y=HHI,fill=Risk,
                             tooltip=tip,data_id=Category))+
  geom_col_interactive(width=0.7,alpha=0.9)+
  geom_text(aes(label=HHI),hjust=-0.2,size=3.5,fontface="bold")+
  geom_vline(xintercept=2500,linetype="dashed",color="#e74c3c",linewidth=0.7)+
  geom_vline(xintercept=1500,linetype="dashed",color="#f39c12",linewidth=0.7)+
  scale_fill_manual(values=c("Low"="#27ae60","Moderate"="#f39c12","High"="#e74c3c"))+
  scale_x_discrete()+
  scale_y_continuous(limits=c(0,max(latest_hhi$HHI)*1.15),labels=comma_format())+
  coord_flip()+
  labs(x=NULL,y="HHI Score (Higher = More Concentrated = Higher Risk)",
       subtitle="Red dashed = high concentration threshold (2500)",
       caption="Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan")+my_theme
girafe(ggobj=pc,width_svg=12,height_svg=7,options=std_opts)
Figure 3: Concentration Risk Scorecard: All Import Categories β€” Latest Available Year

5.1 Concentration Risk Summary Table

Code 
latest_hhi[,Major_Suppliers:=fcase(
  Category=="Phosphoric Acid","Morocco (>70%), Jordan",
  Category=="MOP (Potash)","Canada, Belarus, Russia",
  Category=="Sunflower Oil","Ukraine, Russia (>80%)",
  Category=="Rock Phosphate","Jordan, Morocco (>75%)",
  Category=="DAP","Saudi Arabia, China, Morocco",
  Category=="Palm Oil","Indonesia, Malaysia (>90%)",
  Category=="Soybean Oil","Argentina, Brazil (>90%)",
  Category=="Urea","China, Oman, Iran, Russia",
  default="Various")]
latest_hhi[,Policy_Risk:=fcase(
  Category %in% c("Phosphoric Acid","MOP (Potash)","Sunflower Oil"),
  "Very High β€” sanctions/war exposure",
  Category %in% c("Rock Phosphate","DAP"),
  "High β€” Morocco/Jordan dependency",
  Category %in% c("Palm Oil","Soybean Oil"),
  "Moderate β€” stable duopoly",
  Category=="Urea","Improving β€” post-2021 diversification",
  default="Moderate")]

gt(latest_hhi[order(-HHI),.(Category,HHI,Risk,Major_Suppliers,Policy_Risk)])|>
  tab_header(title=md("**India's Import Concentration Risk Scorecard**"),
             subtitle="Based on HHI calculated from latest year's source-country data")|>
  cols_label(Category="Import Category",HHI="HHI",Risk="Risk Level",
             Major_Suppliers="Top Suppliers",Policy_Risk="Policy Risk Assessment")|>
  tab_style(style=cell_fill(color="#fee2e2"),
            locations=cells_body(rows=Risk=="High"))|>
  tab_style(style=cell_fill(color="#fef9c3"),
            locations=cells_body(rows=Risk=="Moderate"))|>
  tab_style(style=cell_fill(color="#dcfce7"),
            locations=cells_body(rows=Risk=="Low"))|>
  tab_source_note("HHI: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index | Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan")
Table 3: Import Concentration Risk Scorecard: All Categories
India’s Import Concentration Risk Scorecard
Based on HHI calculated from latest year's source-country data
Import Category HHI Risk Level Top Suppliers Policy Risk Assessment
Palm Oil 3582 High Indonesia, Malaysia (>90%) Moderate β€” stable duopoly
Soybean Oil 3564 High Argentina, Brazil (>90%) Moderate β€” stable duopoly
Sunflower Oil 3008 High Ukraine, Russia (>80%) Very High β€” sanctions/war exposure
Phosphoric Acid 2844 High Morocco (>70%), Jordan Very High β€” sanctions/war exposure
Rock Phosphate 2557 High Jordan, Morocco (>75%) High β€” Morocco/Jordan dependency
MOP (Potash) 2553 High Canada, Belarus, Russia Very High β€” sanctions/war exposure
DAP 2252 Moderate Saudi Arabia, China, Morocco High β€” Morocco/Jordan dependency
Urea 888 Low China, Oman, Iran, Russia Improving β€” post-2021 diversification
HHI: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index | Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan

6 Trend Analysis: Is India Diversifying?

Code 
all_hhi[,tip:=paste0("<b>",Category,"</b><br>Year: ",Year,"<br>HHI: <b>",HHI,"</b>")]
pt <- ggplot(all_hhi,aes(x=Year,y=HHI,color=Category,tooltip=tip,
                          data_id=paste(Category,Year),group=Category))+
  geom_line_interactive(linewidth=0.9,alpha=0.8)+
  geom_point_interactive(size=2)+
  geom_hline(yintercept=2500,linetype="dashed",color="#e74c3c",linewidth=0.5,alpha=0.7)+
  facet_wrap(~Category,ncol=3)+
  scale_color_viridis(discrete=TRUE,option="D")+
  scale_y_continuous(labels=comma_format())+
  labs(y="HHI Score",x="Year",
       subtitle="Declining HHI = improving diversification",
       caption="Source: Ministry of Commerce | Analysis: Pawan")+
  my_theme+theme(legend.position="none")
girafe(ggobj=pt,width_svg=14,height_svg=9,options=std_opts)
Figure 4: HHI Trend Over Time: Are India’s Import Sources Becoming More Diversified?

7 Policy Implications

ImportantConcentration Risk: Priority Actions by Category

Immediate priorities (HHI >3,000):

  • Phosphoric Acid: Diversify to Tunisia, Senegal; invest in long-term OCP/Morocco supply agreement with price stabilisation clauses.
  • MOP: Deepen Canada engagement; explore Laos and Turkmenistan as emerging potash sources; build 3-month strategic reserve.
  • Sunflower Oil: Develop Turkey, Argentina as alternative suppliers; consider establishing Black Sea alternative routing through Romania/Bulgaria.

Medium-term priorities (HHI 1,500–3,000):

  • Urea: Maintain post-2021 diversification; preserve OMIFCO relationship; develop Egypt and Iran supply channels contingent on sanctions landscape.
  • DAP: Expand Morocco OCP relationship; consider joint venture in Moroccan DAP manufacturing.

Structural actions:

  • Mandate minimum 6-month strategic reserves for all Category A critical imports (fertilizers, edible oils).
  • Develop a geopolitical supply risk index that is updated quarterly and formally incorporated into import policy decisions.

8 Key Takeaways

ImportantSummary of Concentration Analysis

  1. Phosphoric acid and MOP (potash) are India’s highest-risk import categories by HHI measure β€” both have effective single/duopoly suppliers and both faced severe disruptions in 2021–22.

  2. Sunflower oil carries the fastest-rising concentration risk: its share in the edible oil basket tripled over 14 years, and its supply is now over 80% dependent on the Ukraine-Russia corridor.

  3. Urea concentration has actually improved since 2021 β€” a case where geopolitical shock (China’s export restriction) forced beneficial diversification.

  4. Palm oil presents a stable duopoly β€” high concentration (Indonesia+Malaysia ~90%) but from two broadly stable partners with deep commercial relationships with India; the 2022 Indonesia export ban was short-lived.

  5. The 2021–22 commodity crisis was a wake-up call: multiple categories simultaneously experienced supply stress, revealing how India’s concentrated import structure translates into correlated fiscal and food security risks.

  6. A formal strategic reserves and supply diversification policy β€” modelled on practices in Japan, China, and the EU β€” is urgently needed for Category A critical imports.